Next version of SCTWPS

Coordinator
Mar 30, 2013 at 6:52 AM
When I have time in the next few months I hope to update this program to do the following:

(1) allow draws to be counted (I submit it should not matter for winning chances)

(2) allow a specific Elo distribution to be simulated. Right now, you have to rely on the computer to randomly simulate a Gaussian distribution. In the next version, you can input, as a text file, the actual players. For "big upsets" this does make a difference, since I have found, using this program, that even seemingly tiny changes in the Elo of top players makes a big difference on whether a much lower rated player will win. Simple analogy: if the world's #1 rated player is playing in a Swiss, as opposed to the world's #100th highest rated, the chances that a lower rated player will win goes from very slim to almost none.

(3) possibly incorporate a table that accounts for White vs Black winning chances a little better than the traditional Elo table does, see http://en.chessbase.com/Home/TabId/211/PostId/4007114/the-elo-rating-system-correcting-the-expectancy-tables.aspx
Coordinator
Sep 25, 2013 at 10:51 PM
I started on a new version of this program, that, within the next few months if not sooner, as time permits, make the following changes:

(1) allow a user to have a text file that lists the Elo of particular players, rather than having the program generate a random Gaussian distribution,

(2) allow Round Robin simulations from this designated set of players,

(3) incorporate draws (which should not I believe affect the probabilities much, however, it could arguably give a few more upsets, for example, if a weak player manages a draw rather than a loss to a strong player in one round and otherwise wins the remaining rounds, the weak player could win a clear outright first place rather than possibly lose on tiebreak as with the present program)

I will probably not account for White vs Black winning chances, since over time, with lots of simulations, as with draws and even more so, the selection of colors should be a wash, and not affect winning probabilities much if at all for most players, though it might make a slightly more upsets possible if a weak player has the white pieces against a strong player. Incorporating draws however are a bigger factor than color for possible upsets.

Today I installed TortoiseSVN for version control.